The forest fires raging in northern Lake and St Louis Counties which could spill into Cook County are nothing new for us. This year’s heatwave and fires have precedents in July 1936 and 1976. Remember the B17 water bombers over Ely in the Bicentennial year? I tried looking for a pattern of heatwaves hitting every year that ends in six, but those two are the only match. I guess they are possible anytime persistent high pressure sets up. July 1936 for example set 13 state high temperature records that still stand today because of highs. Sinking air in highs raise temps 5.5 degrees per thousand feet.
At a recent event across the lake in Port Wing, I was asked my opinion on long range forecasts like the popular almanacs. I answered that they are right about 54% of the time as we found out with the July forecast, which called for a hot start but cool finish. We really turned out four degrees warmer than normal! The almanacs and the long range models meteorologists use are hit or miss after seven days, frankly. But, as my former colleague meteorologist Sven Sundgaard put it, they’re the only tools we have so we have to sink or swim with them. We all sure sank with the July forecast and the forecast for August seems to be a continuation of what happened in July: It will be warmer than normal with rain staying on the low side.
The first to seventh should be warm and stormy. The eight to twelfth should be warm and dry. The 13th to 18th may get a heatwave like the ones we had in July. Maybe that will cause famous meteorologist Heatwave Berler to visit the Northland after 46 years in Laredo, Texas? The 19th to 24th will be warm and stormy again. The rest of the month, though, from the 25th to 31st will start to cool and give us an early taste of fall. In fact, the heatwave of 36 came after a record breaking cold winter. Could we reverse the process this year and go that direction again? Stay tuned!
