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Another shot at decent rain will tease us this September

by Northern News Now meteorologist Dave Anderson

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows abnormally dry conditions in a stripe along the Canadian Border. The rest of the Arrowhead is still in a moderate drought. Carlton and Pine Counties have a severe drought because of hit or miss rain this summer that has been more miss than hit. Long range forecasters keep promising us a return to rain but many months have fallen short. This September, the “promise” from those folks is for four inches of rain which would be two more than normal. Keep your fingers crossed!

The temperature forecast for the month ahead says we’ll average one degree warmer than normal. The first week of September looks to be warm and rainy through the 7th. The 8th to 13th could be showery but cool. The 14th to 18th may trend towards sunny and warm. The 19th to 24th threaten to be sunny and cool. The rest of the month may finish showery and cool.

Taking a sneak preview at the rest of fall, it is thought that October and November will be warmer than normal but with a return to normal precip. I know we’ve heard that before!

The extra-long range forecast taking a look at the winter has evidence supporting the El Nino effect. That warms the water of the Pacific and shifts the locations of semi-permanent high and low pressure systems. Often, that means we get warmer and snowier conditions for the western United States. But, since we are in the middle of the North American landmass and near the border of the changes, we could also fall on the cold and dry side that usually hits the eastern American landscape. As always, we have to play the Northland’s winter by ear; or could that be ear muff if the cold side comes across?

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