by Northern News Now meteorologist Dave Anderson
In this day and age, most forecasting is done with what’s called “numerical forecasting”. Forecasts are made using complicated math formulae and run by super computers. The concept was born in the 1920’s but slide rule slinging mathematicians of the time couldn’t do the calculations fast enough to get a forecast done in time. By the time the numbers were crunched, the weather they were trying to predict had already passed. The invention of electronic computers during World War Two made numerical forecasting feasible. That led to several older styles of forecasting being forgotten.
One of the old styles is called persistence forecasting. You use observational skills to make a forecast and persist in trusting those results without being tempted to change things before the predicted time comes around. I think a lot of us have been persistence forecasting in 2024. We persist in saying that the La Nina effect is going to make us cooler and wetter than last year’s warm and dry El Nino winter.
We may have to persist in saying that longer. December 2024 is shaping up to be a little warmer and a hair dryer than normal. Some sources think the Upper Midwest will be six degrees warmer than normal. That’s El Nino warmth! Other sources think our snow totals will only go towards five inches which is half of normal.
Evidence from November showed that we have beaten back the drought a bit so maybe we can tolerate a slightly dry December. The first to fourth should be cool and snowy. The fifth to 14th should mild with light snows. The 15th to the 18th could be warm enough for rain rather than snow. The 19th to 25th could be sunny, dry and warm. The 26th to 31st has a shot at going cold and snowy to finish the old year.
The new year just might start bitterly cold and snowy according to one of the popular almanacs. Maybe La Nina’s not sounding so good after all? That all depends on the thermometer and snow gauge of the beholder.
