by Northern News Now meteorologist Dave Anderson
The topic of drought refuses to go away. Before the big soaker of September 22-25, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed northern Minnesota running from abnormally dry to moderate drought. Pine, Carlton and Aitkin Counties ran extreme to exceptional drought. September went four inches more than nor-mal for rain, however, and hopefully that puts a dent in the dry spell.
We needed that dent because October plans to go back on the dry side. Long range forecasters think the month ahead will be two inches shy of normal for rain and three degrees warmer than normal. September was 3.9 degrees warmer than normal.
This October’s trends will try to follow this pattern: the 1st to 4th should be warm and rainy. The 5th to 11th might be chilly and showery. The 12th to 14th could go sunny and warm. The 15th to 21st hint at being warm and showery. The 22nd to 31st indicate a long sunny and warm stretch to finish the month.
Extra-long range forecasts (educated guesses at best) talk about winter temperatures being below normal. Late November to mid-February may be an extended cold snap. Snowfall is expected to be close to normal for our neck of the woods despite the effect of El Nino. Right now, that’s expected to make the west warm and wet and the east cold and dry. Since we are in the middle of the U.S., we may indeed be a rare normal zone for precip while joining the east in the chill.
