by Northern News Now meteorologist Dave Anderson
Despite the best efforts of late, great VCC chem instructor Darrell Dowden in Ely, my Achilles’ heel in pursuit of my meteorology degree thirty years ago was chemistry. Trig and calc were tough, too. I’ve found in the last three decades that I don’t need to know the chemical composition of a rain drop to calculate the odds of it falling. Trig and calc haven’t been handy for that, either. All I really need is some basic algebra, good old arithmetic and a working knowledge of statistics. I fired up those skills recently to get the stats of the summer we’ve just exited.
National Weather Service Duluth keeps track of climate records for International Falls, Duluth, Brainerd, Hibbing and Ashland. Averaging those zones for the three months of summer gives us a departure from normal mean temp of plus .2 of a degree. The range of normal climate variability around here remains plus or minus .8 of a degree. So, the summer of 25 was quite normal. Will things stay that way for the winter?
That is anyone’s guess. One of the popular almanacs says it will be cold and snowy. Another says it will be warm and dry. NOAA’s system has three categories: warmer than normal, cooler than normal and equal chances which means things could go either way. Right now, they say equal chances.
The forecast for fall is a little more definitive. Signs are that it will be cool and dry. One of the almanacs thinks two degrees cooler and one inch of rain drier. October 1-6 should be near normal with rain and snow showers. The 7th to 13th should turn mild and showery. The 14th to 22nd will turn cooler with rain snow mixes returning. The rest of the month should turn sunny, cool and dry.
